in 4,000,000,000,000 “cake” under the stimulation, the project mechanical tectonic plate might encircle in the near future in two level of market performance may select.The profession index increase scope reaches 30%, surpasses the bulk lots obviously.The Xu labor science and technology [16.020.12%](000425), 31 heavy industry [16.28-0.49%](600031), the Zhonglian serious crime [13.611.26%](000157), the mansion labor stock [5.21-4.05%](600815) and so on in the professions the strong trend company's average increase scope has surpassed 50%, the individual company's increase scope even turns time.The project mechanical tectonic plate collective walks as if lets the human think 4,000,000,000,000 may reverse the tendency which the profession glides down, but all sorts of signs indicated, not only the profession crisis does not have therefore obtains the containment, on the contrary also presents the aggravating tendency.The demand worn out, the account receivable large increase will give industry in to be listed to bring the huge test.
The profession crisis surpasses the imagination
Before epicycle expanding financial policy appearing, the investor looked generally the spatial periodic profession the prospects for development, the project machinery sets an example the periodic profession, that, 4,000,000,000,000 investments plan whether can reverse its profession adjustment the pattern?
The letter constructs throws Researcher Gao Xiao spring to believe that, uses in the equipment appliance class investment cost according to the entire society investment in the fixed assets in occupying compares maintains continuously at 21%~22% about level reckoning, the hypothesis plans originally invests 2,000,000,000,000 Yuan, this time will increase 1 time, the increase 2,000,000,000,000 Yuan investments uses in purchasing the equipment to have 440,000,000,000 Yuan, will estimate the mechanical profession income with 2008 year 8,820,000,000,000 to compare, the income which will bring grows will be only 2.5%.Therefore, the expanded investment is limited to mechanical demand drawing.
Golden company Researcher Luo Xiao spring has carried on the hypothetical resolution to this 4,000,000,000,000 investment.As a whole looked that, 4,000,000,000,000 investments to 2009 mechanical profession main product actual drawing between 5%-6%, the drawing function is limited, cannot change its adjustment pattern.After reckoning, this plan to each kind of project mechanical device drawing function size not one.The overall looked, if the realization arriving, in 2009 will draw the project machinery sale to grow about 6%.He believed that, in the project mechanical profession sale obvious worsening situation, 6% drawing function the influence is weak to the stock price.Specially considered from initiates a project to the actual investment arriving, again arrives forms needs at least half year to the equipment purchase estimate.Therefore he is invariable to the project mechanical profession movement tendency judgment.
Although 4,000,000,000,000 cakes not yet are clear about, but may affirm that, this regarding loads the willow tree labor which the vehicle, the excavator grow perceptibly [10.50-1.04%](000528) regardless of how all is not a small demand stimulation.But, Liu Gongdong Peru Wang Zuguang has not concealed the crisis which the company faces.He acknowledged to reporter that, “the profession management difficult position started from the this year third quarter.We thought originally the situation cannot be very serious, the policy deregulates may alleviate the current pressure, but the present looked like, the next year situation will not be as before optimistic, the financial crisis will bring the influence surpassed the imagination, the difficult position which the company faced has been unprecedented.”
If 4,000,000,000,000 cakes all with difficulty alleviate the car loader, the excavator difficult position, that, take concrete service as center of gravity Zhonglian serious crime, 31 heavy industry possibly say nothing of.The material demonstrated that, Zhonglian, 31 sum totals are occupying the concrete market 80% above share, the company nearly 50% business income and the real estate market concern.In the real estate market as before worn out present, the management pressure which two companies face it can be imagined.
The sales exportation data glides down
This year previous the third quarter, the Chinese project mechanical profession development overall maintained the quick rate of rise, but starts from October, many enterprise sales volume reduces suddenly, some enterprises even start to appear the loss.
“October statistical data has not come out now, but the enterprise which visits from us looked, glides down the sales volume with factor influences and so on the exchange rate, although the entire profession loss has not appeared, but the partial shareholding system's profit space reduced greatly, the exportation increased range has the tendency which the acceleration glides down, the negative growth also has the possibility appearance, simultaneously, the part management and operation bad enterprise starts to appear the loss.” China council for the promotion of international trade mechanical profession branch Vice-chairman Zhang Xiaolin expressed. Chinese Project Mechanical Industrial association Excavator Branch more than 20 main enterprise's statistics indicated to the profession in that, in October, may compare the sample the sales volume is 4332, the same ratio compared with the link all dropped 17%.
According to beforehand rule, 7- September is the project mechanical profession traditional off season, after October the sales volume can have the rise.Moreover, this year Olympic Games sports event affected some project operation, in other words, the earlier period the demand which constrained in October should start to release, the sales volume could rise again gradually.But, in October, 2008 actually appeared the unusual same ratio to recede in pairs with the link ratio.
“Although does not have the statistical data, but may affirm, October sales situation extremely will be ugly.Starts from mid-October, felt suddenly the winter has come!”The domestic some well-known project mechanical enterprise sale branch person in charge tells reporter, the recent period of time partial product sale faces the difficult position, the order form starts to reduce.
In past several years, rose along with the domestic project mechanical profession strong trend, the exportation already became a big luminescent spot which the profession grew.But, along with the financial crisis suddenly worsening, all sorts of signs indicated that, the Chinese machine manufacture profession exportation has the tendency which glides down.
The exportation high speed growth is the mountain pushes the stock [8.593.49%](000680) bulldozer sales volume whole quick growth the guarantee.The third quarter, this company leaves oral agreement 1700, grows 77.5%; But looked from this year by the season that, the exportation speed-up is dropping.The first quarter and the first half year, this company's exportation speed-up respectively is 122.5%, 95.8%.
The account receivable growth is obvious
Not only expansionist policy limited drawing, the exportation situation will cause trouble, affects is suddenly enterprise's future sale income, the large growth account receivable test on the project machinery class to be listed also will be stern.
According to the WIND statistics demonstration, at the beginning of 2008, the domestic 15 machinery class to be listed's account receivable is 9,940,000,000 Yuan; To the this year third quarter, the above company's account receivable increased suddenly to 16,384,000,000 Yuan, grows 64.79%.Looked from the link compared to the data that, the first quarter account receivable is 14,292,000,000 Yuan, the second quarter are 14,883,000,000 Yuan, the third quarter are 16,384,000,000 Yuan.In sales off season time appears the account receivable the large scale increase is not the good phenomenon.
The data display, besides the Xu labor science and technology, 14 company's account receivables all appeared in the third quarter with compared to the large scale growth situation; Among them, the Zhonglian serious crime account receivable same ratio grows 109.29%, Liu Gongtong the ratio grows 55.27%, 31 heavy industry same ratios grow 62.05%.
On the one hand the account receivable large scale growth is as a result of various companies' business income growth, but other not allow to neglect question is, as a result of the downstream market demand reduction, the competition intense degree aggravating, the company relaxed has made loans the request to the customer.The Zhonglian serious crime on pointed out in its three quarterly reports that, the company to the customer credit condition relaxation also is the company account receivable large growth important reason.
According to the mechanical profession management convention, the customer by the project machinery which purchases makes the mortgage, handles the mortgage to the bank, the mortgage contract provision single customer loan amount does not surpass buys the project mechanical funds 70%, the deadline most length is 3 years.Loan the bank agreement according to the company and the mortgage, if the customer has not returned on schedule the loan, the company has buys the duty.
In the market demand exuberant year, the factory and buys the buyer all respectively to enjoy the income growth which the mortgage pattern brings, but, is worn out in the market demand, the customer violation also becomes one kind of possibility, moreover unceasingly is also occurring.31 heavy industry three quarterly reports demonstrated that, up to September 30, 2008, 31 heavy industry has buys the voluntary the accumulation loan remaining sum is 3,608,000,000 Yuan, the customer exceeds the time limit the mortgage funds and returns to the purchase price remaining sum is 232,000,000 Yuan.
Payment pattern malpractice
In machine manufacture class enterprise, no matter is the traditional mortgage service, the market is on the rise financing rents the pattern, the enterprise should to act as a purchasing agent the human to exceed the time limit the responsibility which the mortgage behavior has cannot be shirked.
According to the profession management pattern, first buys the side (customer) is paid 30% to give the seller (enterprise), and will buy the equipment to hand over the bank to make the mortgage; Then has the seller to have for to buy is provided the side buys the guarantee, and for buys in the bank is handed over the side 8% earnest money; The bank through after buys is then handled the side credit examination the loan to need the procedure; Completes the procedure, the bank soon other 70% loans infiltrates the seller account, this time, had the seller to receive 100% loans.Bought is received the equipment the side which the seller provided, the mortgage procedure process gets through.Afterwards, entered has bought the side 1 to 3 year also funds times, namely bought Fang Meiyue is repaid principal and interest to the bank, if broke a contract, could not the full amount repay principal and interest on time to the bank, bank on from 8% earnest money automatic deduction, if bought the side continual 3 months can all not the full amount repay principal and interest on time to the bank, the bank requested the seller to carry on to the equipment buys, in other words, by had the seller for to buy is paid off the side the entire also funds time all principal and interest, like this, the bank has completed its Renminbi increment process, afterwards, the equipment property rights changed to the seller place by the bank, coordinated by the bankHas the seller to take back buys the side hand in the equipment.
In this process, the bank benefit obtained the full guarantee, returns buys occurs jumps over early, the bank reclamation loan principal and interest time is shorter, buys because only then for a period of time does not hand over the bank principal and interest to grasp the equipment creation benefit, therefore buys the side also is profitable in the short-term.But leaves seller's benefit not to safeguard actually, leaves the seller benefit the degree which injures to be decided in leaves seller itself to equipment remnant value processing and the use degree.If processing and the use are appropriate, has the seller also to be possible to make a profit; Otherwise, can have the loss.
Take the hoist crane as the example, few wants 3,500,000, many pieces several 1,000,000, even more than ten million.Is worn out in the downstream demand, but the customer choice violation as if has to for it matter.Perhaps but, this kind the system which is different with the real estate market the mortgage payment pattern to exist is imperfect also is another factor which the customer takes risks.In the main project machine manufacture enterprise, like Xu Gong, Liu Gong, Zhonglian, 31 and so on all have own rent the company, these rent the company the establishment to have the quite big factor is uses for to process own returns not good buys the equipment.
Above situation also only is the establishment in buys above the foundation which cannot pay money on time the side.Must know that, the project machinery class product is different with the real estate “the real estate”, project mechanical profession buying is may drive the side the product to flow at will.
Therefore, in order to guard against buys is appeared the side runs the single behavior, 31 professions and so on in heavy industry, Zhonglian serious crimes the minority business enterprise starts on respective machinery to install on the GPS localization instrument, grasps the geographical position and the active status by this which oneself equipment locates.But the professional disclosed to reporter that, “compared with comes to say, GPS truly has the restraint to the customer behavior, if the customer repays incapably, the enterprise also may through seal up the property, recovers part of losses; But the GPS track performance is only relative, or does not want to pay money intentionally the customer regarding that kind of brazen, no matter uses radically, because installs so long as the GPS position finder skidded with the iron hammer and the hard felt several has fallen, therefore, the enterprise wanted to trace the mechanical device the whereabouts also is helpless.”
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